Short sale restriction indicator forex
Fear of rich US equity short sale restriction indicator forex persists, and that a big sneeze would mean everyone catches a cold. US equities, wiping out gains of the last two years. There is no safety valve to prevent further falls, and that fall would escalate very quickly. He concedes that “if Trump’s policies pay off then markets could move higher, but things are just looking so ‘toppy’ and if the US market falls, then everybody is in trouble.
You may ask “yes, but when? Do they reflect sagacity or grumpy older men? Although Sir John Templeton himself was an octogenarian money manager – ever the optimist – and Warren Buffett is plenty confident in US equities for the long haul, Mobius could be attention-seeking while poised to launch a new developing countries’ fund, as despite hailing a downdraft he still reckons this is “a stockpickers’ market”. If you recall Jesse Livermore, the celebrated early 20th century trader in Reminisciences of a Stock Operator, such stock behaviour was his cue to “put on shorts” in every sense, leave the market and go fishing. US, being geared to Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. Does this represent falling demand in a macro sense, or just short-term negatives conflating? Trade war noises in a fragile market for tanker rates coincide with sparse credit for shipping, also a lower US dollar – the industry’s chief currency.
Shipping can be a tell-tale leading indicator. I’ve noticed the Baltic Exchange Dry Index – a proxy for dry bulk shipping activity – falling this year, though it has bounced in April. It’s a notoriously volatile index, claimed variously in recent years to herald a slump, so I wouldn’t flinch yet. Amber lights from the shipping industry still need watching. 6 billion in the 2017-18 financial year to 2. 2010, is welcome in a wider sense – e. It’s a glimpse “out the woods” if hardly an exit, given total public debt as a percentage of GDP has risen from 85.
If you think a Corbyn government would be disastrous for investors and the UK economy, maybe this improves the Conservatives’ standing. Remoaners seeking any chance to vent frustration, their latest Red Flag Alert for Q1 2018 is not a good read – citing increased levels of financial distress across all sectors and regions of the UK. Notably, some higher-end services are also troubled e. This is relevant potentially to recruitment and financial stocks, although company-specific updates are really needed. The UK economy is still predicted to grow about 1. Begbies’ findings are another aspect to watch as cyclical fore-warning.
More positively, consumer price inflation has eased from 3. March, although employment and wages are growing at the fastest rate in two years. When raising interest rates by 0. November, the Bank of England guided for two more 0. Hopefully, sterling’s fall post the EU referendum, hence its boost to import prices, is passed, as the worse-case scenario would be the Bank in a stagflation dilemma – unable to raise rates without causing grief to smaller firms. Sceptics might say, the problem goes back to QE and ultra-low rates allowing over-borrowed “zombie” firms to continue where the last recession should have finished them off.
There isn’t now a pure UK media-buying listed stock like there used to be years ago. I don’t recall its name and it was too hard to predict earnings to be anything more than a short-term punt, but its updates were useful as a macro indicator. It would be a “glass half-empty” view to major on such warnings as a turning point both in fundamentals and risk appetite, but if they multiply then, yes, they would trigger the kind of self-reinforcing sell-off in equities Mobius cautions about. The US economy appears overall strong. However, mind any trend in UK-listed firms cautioning, as if the corporate stress identified in Begbies’ report is spreading. This investment bank estimates the UK market ranks cheapest after Japan, in the bottom decile of its historic range and with its dividend yield at a 15-year high.
Almost all sectors apart from industrials look unusually cheap both on price-to-earnings and price-to-book values, relative to global peers. Just mind, such analysts’ income is linked to promoting big-cap stocks. These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation, and is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. Full performance can be found on the company or index summary page on the interactive investor website. Simply click on the company’s or index name highlighted in the article.